Iraqi Elections: Prelude to Withdrawal?

I just finished reading this CSM piece and I think it offers some encouraging possibilities about the upcoming Iraqi elections.  Politics aside, any potential sign of nation-building is positive if the goal is American withdrawal and some hope for stability.

The main argument used by the administration to counter the withdrawal argument is that Iraq would be left in chaos, with civil war a certainty.  I would argue our presence is fostering instability and emboldening divisive forces.  However, if we are to believe the sentiment expressed in this CSM article, it would appear Iraqis are far more visionary and pragmatic than most would have us believe:

more Iraqis appear many to be turning to one of the Dec. 15 election's secular parties as the best alternative for a unified and stable Iraq. Mostly it's better educated Iraqis or those from smaller ethnic groups who are making this choice, so their prospects for equaling the voting power of Iraqis following the electoral directives of religious leaders remains unclear.

But some of Iraq's top leaders say that the single most important choice Iraqis will make in the December vote will be between a secular and modernizing government and a religious-based one. The fact that Iraqis will be choosing their first permanent four-year government since Saddam Hussein's fall only adds to the significance, they say.

The conclusion is drawn, that Iraqis may move towards secular government as a means to foster nation building.  If the religious parties lose some measure of support, and this seems reasonable, given greater Sunni participation and other factors, we could witness an election that allows for a stronger, central government. If Iraqis resist regional considerations and vote with unity in mind, this will send a strong message.

I hope the optimism expressed translates into some reality, because it helps us achieve our goal- ending the occupation. If Iraqis demonstrate a willingness to compromise(which we have seen in the recent Egypt discussions), then this bodes well for the short term rejection of outright civil war.  A recognition of the divisive nature of the militias, and the strong desire for a national army, allows for the prospect of some stability.  How amazing it would be to watch Iraqis take control and reject the notion that they are some helpless people who need our influence to quell their bloodlust.

Alot of this is predicated on "ifs" and of course it could all go wrong, but I hope for the sake of Iraqis that their election is a relative success and it supports an environment of accomodation.  If somehow this election dampens the threat of civil war, it allows the withdrawal supporters momentum to bring the troops home.

I don't care how we get out, nor is the Bush spin of any concern.  The cold truth, the overt lies told, will forever haunt those that supported this war, so any  perceived "success" should be welcomed by our side.  I want to move past the point where any recognition of progress is equated with validating this administration.  The die is cast, we can hope for the best, applaud this election and not fear political ramifications.  As long as the Democrats are out front and honest we have nothing to fear and much to gain.  If the Iraqis demonstrate with this election that the embrace the notion of democracy and tolerance, it will be a good day indeed for all parties, ourselves included.  Anything that ends the occupation and lessens the likelihood of further bloodshed for a proud people is a positive.  When the elections happen, I will resist my slant towards cynicism and pause, hoping that it is successful, without my political calculus clouding my nature.